| Commentary and Philosophy Fiction posted November 21, 2022 |
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A young man learns interesting lessons about global warming
The Sky is Falling - Part 1
by Jim Wile
The author has placed a warning on this post for language.
This is a revision of my second posting ever on FanStory back in November, 2022. It was way too long then, so I have substantially revised it and split it into three parts. Part 2 will be posted Sunday and Part 3 on Tuesday.
In the global warming debate, it's unlikely you've heard the information that will be presented in this short story. Although the story is fiction, the facts presented in it are not. No matter which side of the debate you currently favor, you may be interested in the facts and estimates presented here--many of which are agreed upon by both sides. My sources will all be listed in the Author Notes.
Two men entered the elevator on the ground floor. The older man was standing nearest to the buttons and pushed the one for the eighth floor. He looked at the younger man, who said he was going to three, so he pushed the button for three as well. The doors closed, and the elevator started moving up.
About six seconds into the trip, the elevator came to a sudden stop, and the overhead light went out. At the same time, all sound seemed to die.
“Ah, shit. What is this?” said the younger man.
“It seems like we’ve had a power failure,” said the older man.
“Well, I’ve got to get to the third floor. I’ve got a job interview at 3:00, and it’s already… 3:05,” the younger man said as he looked at his phone.
“Look at it like this: Perhaps in the confusion of the moment, they won’t remember you were already late for your interview. Now at least you’ve got a good excuse.”
The younger man frowned and said nothing.
A minute or two passed, then the older man pulled out his phone and made a call. “Hi, Bill. What’s happening?..........Yeah, stuck in the elevator between floors……..Any idea when?..........Okay. See you when I see you.”
He put the phone back in his pocket and sat down on the floor of the elevator with his back against the wall. “Might as well get comfortable. We may be here for a while.”
“God damn it!” said the younger man as he likewise sat down on the opposite side of the elevator.”
“My name is Arthur, by the way,” said the older man.
“Ira. What did your friend say?”
“He doesn’t know much—just that it appears the whole building is down. He said he looked out his window and it looked like the whole block might be out. He could see lights on the next block, though, so it doesn’t appear to be too widespread. He’ll call me when he knows more.”
“Just great,” said Ira, huffing in disgust.
“What are you interviewing for, Ira?”
“An internship at REI.”
“What does REI stand for?”
“You don’t know? It stands for the Renewable Energy Initiative. It’s a non-profit company.”
“I see. And what is its mission statement?”
“To encourage the government to eliminate the use of fossil fuels by 2035 and replace them with renewable energy sources like wind and solar.”
“What about nuclear?” asked Arthur.
“That’s a non-starter. Too dangerous.”
“Hmm. And how do they go about encouraging the government to eliminate fossil fuels?”
“They, like, organize protests. They write legislation for congressmen. They have lobbyists. They publish position papers.”
“I see. And what would you do there as an intern?”
“Hopefully work in media relations.”
“You a college student?”
“Yep. I’m a journalism major.”
“Did you take any classes in climate science?”
“Oh yeah. I took a course called ‘Fossil Fuels: The Scourge of the Earth.’”
“Any others?”
“No. I think that course pretty well summed it all up. Why? You sound suspicious. Are you one of those climate change deniers?”
“Not at all. I don’t know how anyone could deny that the climate is changing. That’s one of the few certainties in life besides death and taxes.”
“Are you a scientist?” asked Ira.
“Yes, I’m a geologist.”
“So, you’re part of the 97% then,” said Ira.
“97% of what exactly?”
“The 97% of scientists who believe the earth is warming.”
“Certainly. It’s hard to deny that we’re currently in a warming period. But you see, that number is sort of meaningless. Now, if you were to ask the same scientists if they believe that man is causing a catastrophic warming of the planet such that it will become uninhabitable, then I think the number would be much, much lower. To me, that’s the only relevant question.”
“Well, I don’t know about that. I think it’s probably higher than you think. All I know is that continuing to spew CO2 into the atmosphere at the current rate is a recipe for disaster.”
“You know that for a fact, do you?” asked Arthur.
“Yes. Everybody knows that. The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the hotter the planet gets because of the greenhouse effect.”
“How much hotter will it get?”
“I don’t know—hotter!”
“Ira, do you know the story of Chicken Little?”
“It’s been a while. Why don’t you refresh me.”
“Alright. Chicken Little was walking along one day when an acorn fell on his head. He was a silly little thing and thought the sky was falling. He then told a bunch of his friends that the sky was falling because a piece of it had fallen and hit him on the head. He kept repeating this to each friend he met, and they started repeating it too. Then a skeptical fox lured them all into his cave, where they’d be safe from the falling sky, but he really just planned to eat them. But the real point I’m trying to make is that no one questioned Chicken Little’s original premise. They just kept repeating the misinformation. I’m afraid that’s what’s been happening in the global warming debate with the claim that the more CO2 in the atmosphere, the hotter the planet will get until it will no longer be habitable.
“So, let me ask you again. How much hotter do you think the planet will get if we keep increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere?”
“They never taught us that.”
“Take a guess. Suppose we double the concentration from 400 parts per million, where we’re at today, to 800 parts per million, and we are quite a few years away from that, but regardless, take a guess.”
“I don’t know—like, 10 degrees?”
“Alright. Double it again to 1,600 ppm. What do you think then?”
“25 degrees.”
“And one more time—to 3,200 ppm.”
“Who cares? We’ll all have melted by then.”
“It turns out that each time you double the concentration of CO2, the increase in temperature is only 1 degree Celsius, which is the same as 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. Did you get that? One degree. It’s no wonder they didn’t teach you that. It kind of blows their whole theory on catastrophic global warming. If you think about it, this is why there was no runaway warming of the earth when CO2 concentrations were 20 times higher than today.”
“Wait a minute,” said Ira. “You’re telling me if we double the concentration of CO2, the temperature goes up only one degree, and if we double it again, it still only goes up one more degree, and if we keep on doubling it, it keeps on going up only one degree each time?”
“That’s what I’m saying. The rate of warming is slowing down logarithmically, not speeding up the way your guesses predicted. Even the IPCC agrees this is happening.”
“How can that be? Things in nature don’t usually operate like that do they?”
“Oh, there are plenty of examples of diminishing returns in nature. It’s all about saturation. Did you ever color Easter eggs when you were a kid, Ira?”
“Well, sure. What has that got to do with it?”
“Some of those kits came with colored pellets that you drop in the water to color it. But you can do the same thing with food colors. Take a small glass full of water and drop a single drop of blue food coloring into it. What happens?”
“It turns blue.”
“Yes, but how blue?”
“I don’t know. What do you mean?”
“Compared to perfectly clear, a single drop turns it quite blue. How about if you add a second drop?”
“It makes it bluer.”
“By the same degree as the first drop?”
“I don’t know. Maybe not.”
“Definitely not. It makes it bluer, for sure, but not nearly to the same degree as that first drop. Now, for each successive drop, the water gets bluer still, but by about the fifth drop, it hardly seems to make any difference. It’s already so blue that you can’t really tell whether or not it’s getting any bluer. It is, but it’s hardly perceptible.”
Ira looked skeptical.
“Alright,” said Arthur. “Here's another example: Suppose you want to darken a room, and you don’t have any shades, but you’ve got a roll of brown butcher’s paper. So, you cut off a piece and tape it over the window. Does a pretty good job, right? But not perfect. So, you tape another piece over top of that. Now, it’s pretty damn dark in the room, but still not 100%, so you tape up yet another piece. Now it’s practically pitch black in there. Do you think taping more pieces up is going to make much difference anymore? The last piece hardly made a difference.
“That’s exactly the way that CO2 works. The present concentration of CO2 already absorbs most of the infrared radiation that causes warming. There isn’t a whole lot more for it to absorb than it already does. So, if the question is: Is the earth warming? The answer is: yes. Is man the cause of it by the increase in the CO2 he produces? Probably to some degree. Is this warming catastrophic? The answer is: unequivocally no.”
(End of Part 1. Part 2 will be posted on Sunday.)
This is a revision of my second posting ever on FanStory back in November, 2022. It was way too long then, so I have substantially revised it and split it into three parts. Part 2 will be posted Sunday and Part 3 on Tuesday.
In the global warming debate, it's unlikely you've heard the information that will be presented in this short story. Although the story is fiction, the facts presented in it are not. No matter which side of the debate you currently favor, you may be interested in the facts and estimates presented here--many of which are agreed upon by both sides. My sources will all be listed in the Author Notes.
Two men entered the elevator on the ground floor. The older man was standing nearest to the buttons and pushed the one for the eighth floor. He looked at the younger man, who said he was going to three, so he pushed the button for three as well. The doors closed, and the elevator started moving up.
About six seconds into the trip, the elevator came to a sudden stop, and the overhead light went out. At the same time, all sound seemed to die.
“Ah, shit. What is this?” said the younger man.
“It seems like we’ve had a power failure,” said the older man.
“Well, I’ve got to get to the third floor. I’ve got a job interview at 3:00, and it’s already… 3:05,” the younger man said as he looked at his phone.
“Look at it like this: Perhaps in the confusion of the moment, they won’t remember you were already late for your interview. Now at least you’ve got a good excuse.”
The younger man frowned and said nothing.
A minute or two passed, then the older man pulled out his phone and made a call. “Hi, Bill. What’s happening?..........Yeah, stuck in the elevator between floors……..Any idea when?..........Okay. See you when I see you.”
He put the phone back in his pocket and sat down on the floor of the elevator with his back against the wall. “Might as well get comfortable. We may be here for a while.”
“God damn it!” said the younger man as he likewise sat down on the opposite side of the elevator.”
“My name is Arthur, by the way,” said the older man.
“Ira. What did your friend say?”
“He doesn’t know much—just that it appears the whole building is down. He said he looked out his window and it looked like the whole block might be out. He could see lights on the next block, though, so it doesn’t appear to be too widespread. He’ll call me when he knows more.”
“Just great,” said Ira, huffing in disgust.
“What are you interviewing for, Ira?”
“An internship at REI.”
“What does REI stand for?”
“You don’t know? It stands for the Renewable Energy Initiative. It’s a non-profit company.”
“I see. And what is its mission statement?”
“To encourage the government to eliminate the use of fossil fuels by 2035 and replace them with renewable energy sources like wind and solar.”
“What about nuclear?” asked Arthur.
“That’s a non-starter. Too dangerous.”
“Hmm. And how do they go about encouraging the government to eliminate fossil fuels?”
“They, like, organize protests. They write legislation for congressmen. They have lobbyists. They publish position papers.”
“I see. And what would you do there as an intern?”
“Hopefully work in media relations.”
“You a college student?”
“Yep. I’m a journalism major.”
“Did you take any classes in climate science?”
“Oh yeah. I took a course called ‘Fossil Fuels: The Scourge of the Earth.’”
“Any others?”
“No. I think that course pretty well summed it all up. Why? You sound suspicious. Are you one of those climate change deniers?”
“Not at all. I don’t know how anyone could deny that the climate is changing. That’s one of the few certainties in life besides death and taxes.”
“Are you a scientist?” asked Ira.
“Yes, I’m a geologist.”
“So, you’re part of the 97% then,” said Ira.
“97% of what exactly?”
“The 97% of scientists who believe the earth is warming.”
“Certainly. It’s hard to deny that we’re currently in a warming period. But you see, that number is sort of meaningless. Now, if you were to ask the same scientists if they believe that man is causing a catastrophic warming of the planet such that it will become uninhabitable, then I think the number would be much, much lower. To me, that’s the only relevant question.”
“Well, I don’t know about that. I think it’s probably higher than you think. All I know is that continuing to spew CO2 into the atmosphere at the current rate is a recipe for disaster.”
“You know that for a fact, do you?” asked Arthur.
“Yes. Everybody knows that. The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the hotter the planet gets because of the greenhouse effect.”
“How much hotter will it get?”
“I don’t know—hotter!”
“Ira, do you know the story of Chicken Little?”
“It’s been a while. Why don’t you refresh me.”
“Alright. Chicken Little was walking along one day when an acorn fell on his head. He was a silly little thing and thought the sky was falling. He then told a bunch of his friends that the sky was falling because a piece of it had fallen and hit him on the head. He kept repeating this to each friend he met, and they started repeating it too. Then a skeptical fox lured them all into his cave, where they’d be safe from the falling sky, but he really just planned to eat them. But the real point I’m trying to make is that no one questioned Chicken Little’s original premise. They just kept repeating the misinformation. I’m afraid that’s what’s been happening in the global warming debate with the claim that the more CO2 in the atmosphere, the hotter the planet will get until it will no longer be habitable.
“So, let me ask you again. How much hotter do you think the planet will get if we keep increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere?”
“They never taught us that.”
“Take a guess. Suppose we double the concentration from 400 parts per million, where we’re at today, to 800 parts per million, and we are quite a few years away from that, but regardless, take a guess.”
“I don’t know—like, 10 degrees?”
“Alright. Double it again to 1,600 ppm. What do you think then?”
“25 degrees.”
“And one more time—to 3,200 ppm.”
“Who cares? We’ll all have melted by then.”
“It turns out that each time you double the concentration of CO2, the increase in temperature is only 1 degree Celsius, which is the same as 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. Did you get that? One degree. It’s no wonder they didn’t teach you that. It kind of blows their whole theory on catastrophic global warming. If you think about it, this is why there was no runaway warming of the earth when CO2 concentrations were 20 times higher than today.”
“Wait a minute,” said Ira. “You’re telling me if we double the concentration of CO2, the temperature goes up only one degree, and if we double it again, it still only goes up one more degree, and if we keep on doubling it, it keeps on going up only one degree each time?”
“That’s what I’m saying. The rate of warming is slowing down logarithmically, not speeding up the way your guesses predicted. Even the IPCC agrees this is happening.”
“How can that be? Things in nature don’t usually operate like that do they?”
“Oh, there are plenty of examples of diminishing returns in nature. It’s all about saturation. Did you ever color Easter eggs when you were a kid, Ira?”
“Well, sure. What has that got to do with it?”
“Some of those kits came with colored pellets that you drop in the water to color it. But you can do the same thing with food colors. Take a small glass full of water and drop a single drop of blue food coloring into it. What happens?”
“It turns blue.”
“Yes, but how blue?”
“I don’t know. What do you mean?”
“Compared to perfectly clear, a single drop turns it quite blue. How about if you add a second drop?”
“It makes it bluer.”
“By the same degree as the first drop?”
“I don’t know. Maybe not.”
“Definitely not. It makes it bluer, for sure, but not nearly to the same degree as that first drop. Now, for each successive drop, the water gets bluer still, but by about the fifth drop, it hardly seems to make any difference. It’s already so blue that you can’t really tell whether or not it’s getting any bluer. It is, but it’s hardly perceptible.”
Ira looked skeptical.
“Alright,” said Arthur. “Here's another example: Suppose you want to darken a room, and you don’t have any shades, but you’ve got a roll of brown butcher’s paper. So, you cut off a piece and tape it over the window. Does a pretty good job, right? But not perfect. So, you tape another piece over top of that. Now, it’s pretty damn dark in the room, but still not 100%, so you tape up yet another piece. Now it’s practically pitch black in there. Do you think taping more pieces up is going to make much difference anymore? The last piece hardly made a difference.
“That’s exactly the way that CO2 works. The present concentration of CO2 already absorbs most of the infrared radiation that causes warming. There isn’t a whole lot more for it to absorb than it already does. So, if the question is: Is the earth warming? The answer is: yes. Is man the cause of it by the increase in the CO2 he produces? Probably to some degree. Is this warming catastrophic? The answer is: unequivocally no.”
(End of Part 1. Part 2 will be posted on Sunday.)
 Recognized |
Sources:
- CLINTEL lecture William Happer in Amsterdam The part I refer to starts at the 27:50 point.
- Fossil Future Chapter 9 by Alex Epstein
- Inconvenient Facts by Gregory Wrightstone (Inconvenient Fact #3)
- The diminishing influence of increasing Carbon Dioxide on temperature
Pays
one point
and 2 member cents. - CLINTEL lecture William Happer in Amsterdam The part I refer to starts at the 27:50 point.
- Fossil Future Chapter 9 by Alex Epstein
- Inconvenient Facts by Gregory Wrightstone (Inconvenient Fact #3)
- The diminishing influence of increasing Carbon Dioxide on temperature
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